Tie Your Camel

It has been widely reported now that Megrahi may not, after all, die within three months. For example:

The Telegraph
The Daily Mail
The Daily Express

Megrahi

As you should expect, it is the usual ragtag tabloid nonsense. The articles tend to muddle Scots law (the ‘less than three months to live’ is a guideline not a requirement). None of the articles touches on Megrahi’s probable innocence. Most seem to conclude that this indicates the existence of outside pressures which would may render the ‘compassion’ a convenient lie, exercised to give in to pressure. What is that alleged external influence? And oil agreement between the UK and Libya.

Again, the tabloids get it wrong. If you read the actual report, it’s clear that consensus on Megrahi was:

1. He has metastatic prostate cancer;
2. the cancer is, as far as they can tell, aggressive:

Factors suggesting a poorer prognosis are more numerous and weigh more heavily – the histological type of his tumour, the stage of his cancer at diagnosis, his psychological wellbeing, the passage of treatments which have been appropriate but have offered only transient success. Biochemical markers of disease once again indicate high activity and likely progression of his disease. However, no other marker or investigation would offer a more accurate barometer of prognosis to assess his clinical condition.;

3.  the initial prognosis as of Autumn 2008 was 12-24 months:

On diagnosis in autumn 2008,specialist clinical consensus gave this prognosis: and in the absence of a good response to treatment, survival could be in the order of months to many months rather than years.’ Pressed to offer a more specific estimate, there was an informal mid-estimate of 18-24 months.;

4. the cancer is resistant to hormonal treatment, significantly reducing his life-expectancy:

People who respond to hormonal treatment can hope for many years of disease suppression and even in the worst case scenario, one would have hoped for 2 years or more of disease control with hormone therapy[...] In June and July 2009, assessment by a range of specialists reached [the] consensus that the disease was, after several different trials of treatment, “hormone resistant” – that is, resistant to any treatment options of known effectiveness. Consensus on prognosis, therefore, has now moved to the lower end of expectations from 10 months ago.

Factors suggesting a

poorer prognosis are more numerous and weigh more heavily – the histological type of his

tumour, the stage of his cancer at diagnosis, his psychological wellbeing, the passage of

treatments which have been appropriate but have offered only transient success. Biochemical

markers of disease once again indicate high activity and likely progression of his

disease. However, no other marker or investigation would offer a more accurate barometer

of prognosis to assess his clinical condition.=;

So what can we conclude? Megrahi is, barring a freak accident or other sudden medical condition, going to die from his prostate cancer. The cancer is resistant to hormone-treatment and his prognosis is not good. He could live up to 12 months, ie he will probably die before Autumn 2010. But remember, the initial prognosis was 12-24 months which means that there is an increased probability he will die some time between now and Autumn 2010. This does make a three-month prognosis a reasonable one.

Moreover, as I have mentioned (and read the report I linked to), Megrahi is probably a victim of a miscarriage of justice comparable to the sentencing of the Guildford Four and the Birmingham Six. Every day he spent rotting in prison was another day we will have to atone for if we ever learn the truth of the bombing.

Was the leave really compassionate? I’m not so sure. The Scots prefaced the release with statements like “show Megrahi the compassion he never showed his victims” and Americans have been happily portraying the Scots and, by extension, the British people as a whole as “weak on terror”. Unfortunately the fact of his likely innocence has rarely made its way into popular discourse. Megrahi had to make a choice: appeal and die in prison (but possibly clear your name) or drop your appeal and be released to die with your family and lose the chance of clearing your sullied name. It was a damned tough choice.

As for external influences? Yes, the oil deal would probably have factored into the decision, no matter what the various ministers say; it’s politics. What I think probably had a greater influence on the release was the possibility of Megrahi succeeding in his appeal or, at the very least, severely embarrassing the Scottish legal system and the UK government. Here’s hoping the Lockerbie situation is properly investigated (as many of the victims’ families want), the real killers and planners are found, and Megrahi’s name is cleared before he passes away.

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